I’ll conceded that I (nobody special) am particularly critical of Steve Jobs and his larger than life narcissistic personality that radiates from everything Apple, but he did make some good points at D8. One of which was the future of computing. Though I agree that there will be a continued shift into mobile computing, I don’t entirely agree with his viewpoint. His otherwise cynical and poor comparison of “trucks” to “PCs” leaves me wondering if he’s really paying to the car market — especially since leading right up to $5.00 a gallon gas GM was the world’s largest automaker selling Trucks and SUV’s.
For those of you that don’t know what I’m talking about, Mr. Jobs said that PC’s would be pushed aside in favor of smaller more compact technologies like tablets and smart phones (and in an effort of full disclosure, he was describing the “personal computer” including Apple). His analogy was that of people moving away from Trucks, or large vehicles if you will, in favor of smaller compacts as they moved from rural areas to the metropolitan city.
Though I agree, and have stated before that I think mobile computing is the next big wave, I don’t see it eliminating PC’s, in fact, I think it will grow it.
See the problem with Job’s analogy is that he doesn’t understand his customer, or more specifically he does understand his customer, all 4% of the personal computer market share. A survey done as late as 2009 shows that Americans to this day still want their cake and eat it too. This one highlights that Americans don’t want smaller cars, they just want more fuel efficient cars. Americans, who are the largest consumers in the world, don’t want smaller things, they like big things. Big powerful things.
American’s don’t want smaller more portable TVs, they want big energy space saving TVs. How many people’s houses do you walk into and they brag about their 12inch TV? The largest consumers in the world want it all. They want PC’s and phones. They want an iPhone, and a Laptop. Heck they even want a tablet.
As my father always use to tell me, you can’t change a zebra’s strips. People still want a traditional computer, with a traditional keyboard, and a nice big traditional screen. If they didn’t then Dell and HP wouldn’t make 17 inch screen laptops that weigh next to nothing. Going further, businesses who are among the quickest to adopt and embrace new technologies, are also among the slowest to phase out antiquated technology. I can’t tell you how many NT 4.0 ADP server’s I’ve seen in my career.
Every generation has an evolutionary path. This generation is the entitlement and no-patience generation. That generation is going to lead the mobile revolution with their desire for on demand media all the time. The second problem with this generation is they’re rarely if ever satisfied. They, probably more so than their parents, want it bigger, they want it better, and they want it faster — if they didn’t shows like “My Super Sweet 16″ and “Suzy Orman” wouldn’t exist. People would buy watches they could afford and wouldn’t have to wait till Suzy told them they couldn’t.
So though I agree mobile technology is the future of the industry, I disagree with Jobs that it’s going to eliminate the PC. I think if anything its going to drastically increase the desire for a PC. Take my brother for example. He is by no means a computer aficionado but he thought the iPhone was a cool toy (and it is). After buying the iPhone he ended up buying a new computer for himself. Puzzled I asked why, and he said “This does things my iPhone doesn’t.” It will be impossible to take the entire computing experience and cram it onto a tablet or a smart phone. If they did that then it wouldn’t be something new, it would just be a really small computer — and as we said before, people, specifically Americans, don’t do anything small. They want it bigger, they want it better, and they want it faster.
So I have to agree with the equally narcissistic, but notoriously bad tempered Steve Ballmer on this one. Ballmer addressed job’s assessment of a shrinking PC market and said he saw a growing one — I see that too. I also see a larger piece of the pie going to Apple in the future (sorry Ballmer) that is if Job’s doesn’t drive the company into the ground first (sorry Jobs).
Will see how it all plays out, oh, and not to change the subject, but for those of you cheering that Apple has surpassed Microsoft in market value keep something in mind. Steve Job’s the man is estimated to be about 1/8th of Apples Market value, which means that if he died tomorrow Apple’s value would theoretically lose $25 billion dollars. It’s also worth noting that Enron, Lehman Brothers, and Bear Sterns proved it doesn’t matter how much you’re worth, its about how much you make.
